Who Is Winning The Election Right Now?

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How much can happen in such a short amount of time?

Who Is Winning The Election Right Now?

The month between the first presidential debate and the Democratic National Convention may be the most surprising of all. month - The decline of modern American politics: from President Biden's poor debate performance to former President Donald Trump's assassination attempt to Biden's resignation shortly after the Republican National Convention to the rapid consolidation of support under Vice President Harris. Democrats.

All year, maybe longer, the race has been between two wildly popular candidates: Trump and Biden. But Harris' entrance turned things around. Democratic morale has risen, partly due to relief that Biden is no longer the candidate and the idea of starting a campaign and outside groups supporting him, polls show the race has tightened. Democratic strategists fear that Trump could win easily if he repeats the 2016 and 2020 polling errors.

Also, in 2022, polling errors, but it is not appreciated by the Democratic Party. compared to Republican support. Trump, of course, did not participate in the midterm elections, and his most ardent supporters are now outnumbered.

No one knows. exactly what will happen. . More than 70 million people voted early, and probably more than twice as many stayed to vote and be counted. If the state is as close as predicted, the winner could be days away. in 2020 the Associated Press and NPR did not publish their appeals until the Saturday after the election to declare victory and denounce fraud. In fact, he has been doing it for four years, and in the last days of the campaign he created the conditions for it.

Uncertainty reflects an important election, not just for the president, but for those who control Congress.

therefore, the decisions of the White House, Senate and House are decisive.

Democrats, as usual, are among the most bad for the Senate. party in modern political history. Republicans are expected to control the House, needing two seats if they lose the White House and one if Trump wins (because the vice president will cut ties). According to the Cook Political Report, Republicans are already in favor in two places: West Virginia and Montana.

There are half a dozen other contested seats that could mirror the outcome of the presidential election in these states, including Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Democrats expected Texas and Florida to be competitive, but this was a fluke.

The number of Senate seats won by Republicans could be critical to Democratic survival. remain in the minority. – and whether they will have a chance of winning back the Dewan Rakyat in two years.

There are fewer contested seats in the Dewan Rakyat due to redistricting. year. This year, more districts than ever before members of Congress are trying to avoid tough and expensive elections, but forecasters like Inside Elections say Democrats' chances of taking back the House have improved in the past month.

Democrats need four seats to govern. In the "election" you see that Democrats can pick up as many as nine Republican seats. For the first time this cycle, it gave the Democrats an edge.

It is unusual for the House and Senate to go in opposite directions, especially during a presidential election. year. . . . . But it happened. Since 1934 the party of the winning presidential candidate has lost four seats in the Senate and won a seat in the House of Representatives, not since 1984.

During the same period, two representatives The losing party receives the mandate, but loses its seat in the Senate. Actually, that's what 2020 is all about. Republicans did it: They gained 13 seats in the House of Representatives but lost three in the Senate when Biden won the White House.

Who best represents "change" could be the deciding factor in the presidential election.

Change is a powerful force in politics, but pre-election polls show Americans are split on which candidate is most likely to participate in this is optional. choice. it means change.

Trump has the advantage of not having a president at a time when people are pessimistic about prices, immigration and American foreign policy

Harris is the outgoing vice president, but for many that means change, also because he is younger than Biden, not Trump; She will be the first woman, the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent to serve as president.

Americans are in a bad mood and it's long overdue.

It's important to get the title of "change" when people are so pessimistic about the direction. occupation of the country

For 15 years, Americans have repeated every month that the country is headed in the wrong direction. This had a huge impact on the US election. People are fed up with politics (and its effectiveness) more than ever.

Americans trust government and its institutions, including health and rights, at near-record levels.

This is a time when Americans are increasingly classified socially and politically by the environment they live in and the information they consume. "Where" one lives may be more important than race, gender and ethnic identity when voting.

Respected Voters Will Vote . will begin Tuesday during Michigan's early voting period. Elon Musk recently highlighted unsubstantiated claims about state voter registration.

Voters of both parties see threats to their way of life from the other side, and what that means . tools. to be an American. Conservatives see the culture as too liberal, weak and empowering. They see a country whose best days have passed and whose culture and way of life have declined since the 1950s.

But the left believes that the rights of women, the marginalized and democracy itself are at risk because leaders have enabled intolerance and conspiracy.

When people many are in a bad mood, they tend to blame the government, which is certainly true about the economy and immigration. Despite strong signs of a post-pandemic economic recovery, Americans are feeling the effects of higher food prices and interest rates than before the pandemic. The cost of living is rising and housing is less affordable.

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Many Americans are also concerned about the number of immigrants crossing the US southern border. All of this challenged Harris, as did Biden before him. This gives Trump a clear advantage on both issues.

Harris, on the other hand, favors women's reproductive and gender rights. This election gap may be the most important in American history.

Trump faces serious character challenges

Trump has recently turned politics America for decades. according to Trump reassuring his supporters that things Republicans won't support in decades are moving forward: less foreign intervention; reduce commitment to allies; more trade barriers; better attitude towards Russia; Kudos to dictators and strongmen.

Their inflammatory rhetoric and racist complaints have ruined the country. His opinion of Trump has changed little since he entered politics. Over the years, more than half the country has expressed a negative opinion of him.

But he enjoys loyal (and apparently undivided) support. There is what we call "high floors and low ceilings" in politics. In 2016, when he won, he received 46% of the vote, and in 2020, when he lost, he received 47% of the vote.

His presence in Republican politics means anyone seeking the party's nomination for almost any office should be blessed, but the negative opinions of many undecided suburban voters have seen Republicans lose the next election cycle. . Election cycle.

In 2016, he lost the referendum by 3 million votes, and in 2020 - by 7 million votes. Trump could win this year and become the first person to win twice and lose twice. (However, he may win the popular vote this time because Harris' lead in national polls is much smaller than Hillary Clinton's in 2016 or Biden's in 2020.)

Because College Choice Raya (and swing states) are more conservative than the nation as a whole, and Republican-leaning white voters are more college-educated, especially in swing states (the blue borders of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), Adu. I'm inclined to say he could win.

This election is again expected to be very close, with only a handful of states deciding it. . In addition to the Blue Wall states, the focus is on four Sun Belt states: North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The reality of the map is that Trump cannot win without winning one of the Blue Wall states, and Harris cannot win without winning one of Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia.

They crossed paths in Pennsylvania, which explains why the campaign spent $600 million. USD for political advertising in all elections from 2024. the beginning of the cycle, including elections for the Senate, the House of Representatives and lower levels. It was the largest amount ever spent in a single state.

Polarization didn't end on election night

Harris tried to echo Trump's words: Reality. and his actions are part of the message he's sending this campaign: remind voters of what he sees as a threat to democracy.

Even if he knows that wins over moderate voters. The Republicans did, but he had Trump's base on hold, even as he falsely claimed that the charges against him were politically motivated, or claimed that in 2020 the election was stolen, lies that helped fuel the violent siege at the US Capitol. in 2021 Jan 6

Republicans are now more likely to say the country needs "strong leaders" than Democrats, who are more likely to say the most. conductors are "honest and trustworthy," according to a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.

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Republicans are also more likely to think the country needs them. a leader who breaks the rules to fix things, and one in three believes that "patriots must use violence to save our country." This amount has only increased since January 6.

All of this has led to a contested and contentious presidential election that could go either way, as well as midterm elections. It's a time when many are worried moving forward, especially when the integrity of US elections sets this country apart from the rest of the world.

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