What would Thucydides think of tensions between the United States and China today? This is more than an academic question. In his History of the Peloponnesian War, the Athenian general and historian wrote that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear it inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable". As American political scientist Graham Allison first noted in 2012, most times in history when a rising power has threatened to oust an existing great power, even if neither side agrees. sought, it led to war. Allison led a "Thucydides Trap" research project at Harvard University that examined 16 such cases over the past five centuries, beginning with the rise of Spain challenging Portugal in the Atlantic at the late fifteenth century. Twelve of these cases led to war.
Harvard government professor Douglas Dillon, speaking to me via video link from Boston, offers a grim response when asked about current tensions. He says Thucydides "wouldn't be surprised by any of the behavior" involved in the current US-China relationship. "Both sides are spelled correctly, almost as if vying to show which might best exemplify the classic role of power in place and power rising, and they rush towards the greatest collision of all time. What if you remember, in my book, I predicted: 'Wait until things get worse before they get worse. The book in question is Destined for War: Can the United States and China Escape the Trap? of Thucydides? (2017), from the Harvard project.
Allison studied as a graduate student under Henry Kissinger and in 1971 published Essence of Decision, which challenged prevailing "rational actor" theories of international relations and is widely regarded as the definitive study of the Cuban Missile Crisis . He advised successive U.S. administrations and, as the Pentagon's director of planning, shaped America's post-Cold War recalibration under Bill Clinton in the mid-1990s. But even by the standards of his first book, Destined for War had an enormous impact: studied extensively on both sides of the Pacific, it is probably the most influential work on international relations of our time. Allison recalls that at the Davos summit in January this year, a Chinese delegate approached him and asked if he could be to blame for a "self-fulfilling prophecy" of superpower rivalry. To which came the gruff reply: "No, blame Thucydides."
Read Also : What are Allison models of foreign policy?
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What would Thucydides think of tensions between the United States and China today? This is more than an academic question. In his History of the Peloponnesian War, the Athenian general and historian wrote that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear it inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable". As American political scientist Graham Allison first noted in 2012, most times in history when a rising power has threatened to oust an existing great power, even if neither side agrees. sought, it led to war. Allison led a "Thucydides Trap" research project at Harvard University that examined 16 such cases over the past five centuries, beginning with the rise of Spain challenging Portugal in the Atlantic at the late fifteenth century. Twelve of these cases led to war.
Read Also : What are Allison models of foreign policy?Harvard government professor Douglas Dillon, speaking to me via video link from Boston, offers a grim response when asked about current tensions. He says Thucydides "wouldn't be surprised by any of the behavior" involved in the current US-China relationship. "Both sides are spelled correctly, almost as if vying to show which might best exemplify the classic role of power in place and power rising, and they rush towards the greatest collision of all time. What if you remember, in my book, I predicted: 'Wait until things get worse before they get worse. The book in question is Destined for War: Can the United States and China Escape the Trap? of Thucydides? (2017), from the Harvard project.
Allison studied as a graduate student under Henry Kissinger and in 1971 published Essence of Decision, which challenged prevailing "rational actor" theories of international relations and is widely regarded as the definitive study of the Cuban Missile Crisis . He advised successive U.S. administrations and, as the Pentagon's director of planning, shaped America's post-Cold War recalibration under Bill Clinton in the mid-1990s. But even by the standards of his first book, Destined for War had an enormous impact: studied extensively on both sides of the Pacific, it is probably the most influential work on international relations of our time. Allison recalls that at the Davos summit in January this year, a Chinese delegate approached him and asked if he could be to blame for a "self-fulfilling prophecy" of superpower rivalry. To which came the gruff reply: "No, blame Thucydides."